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ivraatiems 2 hours ago [-]
> If Anthropic is losing a fortune now with $13 billion in costs how are they going to break even spending $100+ billion per year? Don’t worry, their godlike AI will figure that out?
It's wild that this is an accurate summation of their position here. It's equally wild that a company building and selling a technology as actually useful as an LLM - yes, I think they're useful, sue me - can't begin to think about how to make money with one.
I agree with the article - they'd better hope they are messianic super geniuses, because if not, they're gonna seem real stupid when we have all moved in in a few years. The technology will stay, but that doesn't mean they will.
rchaud 3 minutes ago [-]
if they were making profits now, it would set an upper limit on the number they IPO at. Losing money however? Sky's the limit.
CoolestBeans 2 hours ago [-]
Matt Levine's summary of Sam Altman's (and most of AI industry's) business plan remains accurate: "We will create God and then ask it for money."
malshe 12 minutes ago [-]
Matt never fails to deliver
zero_shift 2 hours ago [-]
> I agree with the article - they'd better hope they are messianic super geniuses
It sounds remarkable, and I didn't believe it at first. But after more reading, I am convinced an influential part of Anthropic leadership really is something like a religious movement
2 hours ago [-]
xnx 1 hours ago [-]
Even worse than that, they have to be the only messianic super geniuses.
nielsbot 2 hours ago [-]
Surely this is a "hook 'em with low prices, then raise them later" scheme--the biggest one yet.
I wonder where the split between self-hosted LLMs (w new more powerful LLM hardware) and hosted LLMs (big iron from an LLM-provider or at your office) will fall. Will there be a future for both? LLMs and other ML tools just with different levels of capability? etc.
Atreiden 2 hours ago [-]
This is what many have been forecasting (myself included), but the open-weights models coming out of China pose a serious problem for that approach
ivraatiems 2 hours ago [-]
That's precisely the issue. LLMs are replicable technology. There is insufficient special sauce to build any kind of moat here.
treis 29 minutes ago [-]
No, the demand is effectively infinite at the moment and models are getting cheaper to serve. At least for a while price will go down when keeping capabilities constant.
Bratmon 2 hours ago [-]
I think "locally hosted LLMs" and "frontier LLMs hosted by frontier labs" will both end up as less than 1% of "Open Source LLMs hosted remotely by a lowest-bidder commodity compute provider"
Razengan 2 hours ago [-]
> their godlike AI will figure that out?
Maybe it could if they stop crippling it so much
(Opus 5.5 thought a user was trying to hack it because their prompt contained the word "reasoning")
moomin 2 hours ago [-]
I recently tripped the safeguards by referring to a fake deployment tool. I started referring to it as a virtual one and it was fine.
dh2022 3 hours ago [-]
Reminds me of the Amazon joke in the 90s (before they barely avoided bankruptcy): Amazon loses $5 on each sale but makes it up in volume.
highway900 2 hours ago [-]
What never checks out (aside from most of it) is how they will raise prices to a market that shrinks due to unemployment. Can’t sell apples to people without money.
treis 21 minutes ago [-]
Does anyone have the actual doc or are we now getting articles about articles.
treetalker 1 hours ago [-]
> > The more they lose, the more they win!
American zeitgeist.
jmyeet 2 hours ago [-]
Here are my biggest risks for Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX that don't seem to get the attention they deserve:
1. What happens to your existing hardware investments when NVidia releases new hardware that allows buyers to run the same models at a fraction of the cost in energy times? IMHO performance-per-Watt is going to be the only significant metric here. Yes, your existing hardware will still work but efficiency is going to be the name of the game;
2. How are you going to deal with the threat of open weight models that can be run locally and/or or cloud GPU infrastructure? We already have relatively affordable hardware (ie Mac Studios) that can run models as large as 500B-1T parameters with 3-4 bit quantization. That's only going to get better; and
3. The only use cases for AI really are:
a) Raising prices;
b) Cutting costs, particularly labor; and
c) Military applications such as targeting and autonomous drone and missile operation.
A society where even 20% of people end up unemployed is one that catastrophically fails.
ChrisArchitect 3 hours ago [-]
Related:
Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows AI vision, surging costs
‘Anthropic is making a massive bet that AI will transform the global economy more profoundly than industrialization, electricity and the internet, according to its IPO prospectus seen by Reuters.’
I mean, if you’re gonna aim big may as well go all out. Next week OpenAI will claim to transform the global economy more than life itself.
All horseshit, of course. Still haven’t found a benefit to AI in my work or personal life. I hope the crash is a doozy.
tim333 1 hours ago [-]
I think AI will transform things but the Anthropic financials are crazy. I suspect you'll get your crash. It's like Webvan saying the internet would transform commerce. Yes but...
It's wild that this is an accurate summation of their position here. It's equally wild that a company building and selling a technology as actually useful as an LLM - yes, I think they're useful, sue me - can't begin to think about how to make money with one.
I agree with the article - they'd better hope they are messianic super geniuses, because if not, they're gonna seem real stupid when we have all moved in in a few years. The technology will stay, but that doesn't mean they will.
It sounds remarkable, and I didn't believe it at first. But after more reading, I am convinced an influential part of Anthropic leadership really is something like a religious movement
I wonder where the split between self-hosted LLMs (w new more powerful LLM hardware) and hosted LLMs (big iron from an LLM-provider or at your office) will fall. Will there be a future for both? LLMs and other ML tools just with different levels of capability? etc.
Maybe it could if they stop crippling it so much
(Opus 5.5 thought a user was trying to hack it because their prompt contained the word "reasoning")
American zeitgeist.
1. What happens to your existing hardware investments when NVidia releases new hardware that allows buyers to run the same models at a fraction of the cost in energy times? IMHO performance-per-Watt is going to be the only significant metric here. Yes, your existing hardware will still work but efficiency is going to be the name of the game;
2. How are you going to deal with the threat of open weight models that can be run locally and/or or cloud GPU infrastructure? We already have relatively affordable hardware (ie Mac Studios) that can run models as large as 500B-1T parameters with 3-4 bit quantization. That's only going to get better; and
3. The only use cases for AI really are:
a) Raising prices;
b) Cutting costs, particularly labor; and
c) Military applications such as targeting and autonomous drone and missile operation.
A society where even 20% of people end up unemployed is one that catastrophically fails.
Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows AI vision, surging costs
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49886005
I mean, if you’re gonna aim big may as well go all out. Next week OpenAI will claim to transform the global economy more than life itself.
All horseshit, of course. Still haven’t found a benefit to AI in my work or personal life. I hope the crash is a doozy.